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View Article  Pies Pies Pies Yeah

So I celebrated Pi Day with some friends yesterday and had a nice time.  The pies and treats were delicious.  Sadly I didn't bring a cherry pie for Julie, I will have to remember to do that next year.  The blueberry pie was great, the chicken pot pie was delicious, and though the glutin-free lemon meringue was very runny, it still tasted fine.

We played games (I had a nice long game of Carcassonne, and other people played Bohnanza), made up silly jokes and songs, and just had a very nice afternoon.  I got to meet some new friends, and spend a little time with some old ones. And I ate WAY too much pie.

This morning my idle mind wrote a little song parody based on the day which I decided to share here:

You made me blueberry,
Apple and pecan;
Wet meringue with lemon goo
And pot pie tastes so grand.

(The bigger, the better)
Our tummies fully crammed...
Collected from around the world
we'll eat them if we can!

Pies pies pies yeah!
Pies pies pies yeah!
Pies pies pies yeah!
Pies pies pies yeah!

The pound cake was delicious,
And whoopie pies were fine.
But poor Julie got no cherry,
What a waste of time.

Big ones and small ones,
Look lovely to our eyes,
Tantalizing on the plate,
Not so much on our thighs...

Pies pies pies yeah!
Pies pies pies yeah!
Pies pies pies yeah!
Pies pies pies yeah!

Go back to your larder,
Fetch me another plate,
My pancreas is still alive,
And I'm not the sort to wait.

The bigger, the better,
And some are glutin free,
So what if you don't eat your share,
More for me and me and me and me and me and

Pies pies pies yeah! (We're gonna eat you.)
Pies pies pies yeah! (Not too discreet to.)
Pies pies pies yeah! (Fat like a B-2.)
Pies pies pies yeah!

Oh you know I know...

Pies pies pies yeah!
Pies pies pies yeah!
Pies pies pies yeah!
Pies pies pies yeah!

Oh you know I know...

Pies pies pies yeah!
Pies pies pies yeah!
Pies pies pies yeah!
Pies pies pies yeah!

View Article  Attention Executive and Legislative Branches -- I WANT SINGLE PAYER HEALTH CARE

In a single payer system, the cost of healthcare drops dramatically.  Yes it's true taxes go up, but at this point?  They're going up anyway.  The economic stimulus our country needs is going to have to be paid for, and we are all going to pay for it.  Combine this with the 30 years this country has frittered away when it should have been building a new energy grid, green technologies, maintaining infrastructure, and so on, and it's clear, the party is over.

And by "the party is over" I'm referring to those artificially low taxes that our conservative friends still think are too high.

I am sick and tired of listening to gloom-and-doom naysayers fiddling about long lines, delays, and taxes while Rome burns.  I have friends who are suffering right now simply because they cannot get the help they need due to lack of coverage.

Single-payer health care works in many countries around the world, some better than others.  I have enough faith in American ingenuity that we can make it work here.  But it does mean (AFAIC) the end (or serious curtailing) of health insurance companies that have risen to wealth on their two core tenets--1. collect premiums, and 2. don't pay benefits.

For those who quake in fear at the notion?  We tried it your way for decades and it sucks.  I'm ready for something new.

View Article  Peter Schiff on FOX News in 2006 and 2007

YouTube video of loons at Faux News laughing at Peter Schiff as he tries to warn of impending financial disaster in the 07-08 timeframe:

Peter Schiff Was Right 2006 - 2007 (2nd Edition)

What stock picks were the FOX tools recommending?  WaMu, Merril Lynch, Goldman Sachs... financials basically.

View Article  NYT on Nate
Here's a nice article in the New York Times about Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight who's predictions about the 2008 presidential and senate races were so amazingly accurate.  Hat tip to my friend Bruce who brought the article to my attention.
View Article  Looking Iffy

Yeesh. Things are starting to look a little iffy in my industry. So far my work has been unaffected by the instability in the markets, but I am beginning to hear from other developers that potential clients are becoming nervy about starting new development projects. Hopefully that won't hit us, but frankly I've been expecting it to. Usually software houses take a hit when the market looks uncertain.

Anyway, I have a lot to do and I am heads down on it. This post (and my previous 3) have been posted via "moblogging"--I send an e-mail to the blog provider and they turn it into a post. Still planning on doing a blogathon on Tuesday November 4 to cover the election. I encourage all my friends to drop me an e-mail with their experiences at polling stations.

View Article  Designing the Fun Away

Ever have a challenging pastime to which you applied analytical skills and ended up making it so easy it ceased to be fun?  This happens to me occasionally.  A couple years back we had a sort of "puzzle craze" in the United Stated over "sudoku", a sort of numeric logic puzzle originating from Japan.

The basic puzzle is a 9x9 box of squares in which some of the squares have been filled in with numbers.  Your assignment is to fill in the rest of the squares by following 3 simple rules: (1) each number can appear only once in each row, (2) each number can appear only once in each column, (3) each number can appear only once in each "major square".  The major squares are nine 3x3 boxes superimposed over the 9x9 puzzle in a non-overlapping fashion (so the first major square is formed by columns 1, 2, and 3 where they pass through rows 1, 2, and 3, the next at the intersection of columns 4, 5, and 6 with rows 1, 2, and 3, and so on.)  Since every row contains 9 squares, and every column contains 9 squares, and every major square contains 9 squares, the only numbers you will ever add to the puzzle are the numbers 1 to 9.

There are larger and more complex variants on the basic sudoku, but the above is the most popular and familiar variety.  I did sudokus for awhile but eventually tired of them and moved on to new pastimes.

One reason I tired of them is that a large part of sudoku is simple, repetitive, busy work.  You eliminate the possibilities for each square until a solution pops out for one square and then you fill that in and go back and reevaluate the possibilities for the other squares.  For example, a given square can be any number between 1 and 9.  But if you look at the column that square is in and find 1, 5, and 6 are already used, those are no longer possibilities for that square.  If the row that square is in contains 2, 3, and 7, then those possibilities are also eliminated.  Further if the major square it is in already contains 4 and 9, then those possibilities are eliminated too, leaving only 8, so in this case the square must be 8.

It's much more interesting when you start getting into the more complicated bits of reasoning that involve multiple squares.  Like for instance if a major square is filled in except for two squares, then those two squares have only two possibilities.  Let's say the possibilities are 5 and 9.  Further assume that these two squares are in the same row (or column).  Immediately we can say of all the other squares in that row (or column) that none can be 5 or 9 since those two options have to be used up by those two squares.  But getting to that point involves getting through a period of tedious repetition.

But when you are stuck in a cabin in the rain for a day, away from the amenities you typically would enjoy, even a tedious pastime is welcome.  However, I've found one thing consistently true among software engineers: they generally hate doing tasks by hand which would be better done by a simple computer program.  So I was plonking along with sudoku puzzles, eliminating options by hand when I said "this is stupid, I could make a simple spreadsheet macro to do this for me."

So I built a spreadsheet that would show me the remaining possibilities for each row and column as a row or column header.  Then when I was eliminating possibilities for major squares I said "this is stupid, I can use the same macro to do this for me."  So I added a bit to my spreadsheet to show me the possibilities remaining for every major square.  So now for a given cell I could compare the possibilities for its row, to the possibilities for its column, and the possibilities for its major square and the intersection of those three would represent the possibilities for the cell.  (For example, if the cell is in a row with 4,5,6,7 available, and a column with 2,3,5,7,8 available, and a major square with 1,5,7,9 available, the possibilities for that cell are only 5 and 7, because that is the intersection of the three sets of possibilities.)

I suppose you can guess what happened next.  "This is stupid, I can write a simple function to take the intersection of these possibilities."

One other basic sudoku-solving technique is to look for "loners".  A loner is the only square in a row (or column or major square) that includes a particular number as one of its possibilities.  For example if you have four unfilled squares in a major square and their possibilites are (2,3,4), (2,3,5), (3,5), and (2,5) you can say the first one has to be 4.  Even though 2 and 3 are possibilities for this square, since it is the only square that can be 4, then it must be 4. Finding loners is also tedious, and you can imagine what I did as a result. "This is stupid, yadda yadda yadda..."

So now I had a spreadsheet that would eliminate all the impossible values for a square based on simple cross checking and which would identify loners for me.  But I found as I was entering puzzles that this solved so much of the puzzle automatically, there was very little left for me to do.  The spreadsheet would notify me when I caused an error (forced the possibilities for a cell to dwindle to nothing) and in those cases where I needed to make a guess to explore one possible solution, the spreadsheet would allow me to snapshot the puzzle at that point so I could get back to it if the puzzle didn't work out.  With these features available puzzles rated "difficult" were taking under 2 minutes to solve.  After 5 or 6 of them I shut Excel done and was done with sudoku for the day.  Why bother?  It was too easy now.

The pastime had become writing the code to perform the tedious operations.  Once that was accomplished I was no longer interested in performing those operations.  Go figure.

View Article  Silent Sky - A Thought Experiment

This is an interesting thought experiment and it involves statistics and some figuring, so I welcome any of my smart friends or anybody who cares to think about it to chime in here.

Assume that sentient civilizations with the ability to transmit some form of radiant communications signals (radio, light, whatever) started appearing in our galaxy as early as 4.5 billion years ago (when the Earth was forming), and assume that they continue to appear (each on its own evolutionary trajectory) for another 4.5 billion years.  Further assume that over this timespan of 9 billion years a total of one million different intelligent civilizations begin transmitting radiant communications. After a random time period of 100 to 1000 years each civilization stops transmitting radiant signals, either because they move on to a better technology that does not require radiant communication (pretty much necessary for interstellar communications) or the civilization dies out.  Finally given that our galaxy's diameter is about 100,000 light years, assume that any of these civilizations when transmitting would be at some random distance from us which does not exceed 100,000 light years (yes I know that's a little big since we aren't at the very edge of the galaxy, but bear with me.)

Now, here we are, smack-dab in the middle of that timescale, halfway between year 1 and year 9 billion.  We turn an array of radio telescopes to the sky and listen in all directions simultaneously, constantly, for a period of 1,000 years.

Is our sky silent?  Or is it noisy?  With a million civilizations out there at some point or another, all sending signals out at different times, what are the chances we would hear none of them at all even if we listen for 1000 years?

I threw together a crude simulation last night to try and answer this question, and I have a result which you might find surprising, but I'm curious to know what other people think first.  Care to venture a guess?  Or perhaps create your own sim and see what results you get?  I'll post my results tomorrow.