Unbecoming Levity

Silent Sky - A Thought Experiment

Abacquer — Wed, 28 May 2008 12:57:00 -0400

This is an interesting thought experiment and it involves statistics and some figuring, so I welcome any of my smart friends or anybody who cares to think about it to chime in here.

Assume that sentient civilizations with the ability to transmit some form of radiant communications signals (radio, light, whatever) started appearing in our galaxy as early as 4.5 billion years ago (when the Earth was forming), and assume that they continue to appear (each on its own evolutionary trajectory) for another 4.5 billion years. Further assume that over this timespan of 9 billion years a total of one million different intelligent civilizations begin transmitting radiant communications. After a random time period of 100 to 1000 years each civilization stops transmitting radiant signals, either because they move on to a better technology that does not require radiant communication (pretty much necessary for interstellar communications) or the civilization dies out. Finally given that our galaxy's diameter is about 100,000 light years, assume that any of these civilizations when transmitting would be at some random distance from us which does not exceed 100,000 light years (yes I know that's a little big since we aren't at the very edge of the galaxy, but bear with me.)

Now, here we are, smack-dab in the middle of that timescale, halfway between year 1 and year 9 billion. We turn an array of radio telescopes to the sky and listen in all directions simultaneously, constantly, for a period of 1,000 years.

Is our sky silent? Or is it noisy? With a million civilizations out there at some point or another, all sending signals out at different times, what are the chances we would hear none of them at all even if we listen for 1000 years?

I threw together a crude simulation last night to try and answer this question, and I have a result which you might find surprising, but I'm curious to know what other people think first. Care to venture a guess? Or perhaps create your own sim and see what results you get? I'll post my results tomorrow.

Equal Night

Abacquer — Tue, 20 Mar 2007 20:07:00 -0400

8:07 PM EDT today, March 20, marks the Vernal Equinox and the official start of Spring 2007. Today at that time the sun will pass over the equator from the southern hemisphere to the northern. This is what you probably already know.

But I learned a couple of things today that I didn't know. First is that "equinox" means "equal night", which makes sense because on the equinoxes the length of day and night are exactly equal. Here in the northern hemisphere the days will continue to get longer until the Summer Solstice at 12:06 PM EDT on June 21, 2007. Since the last Autumnal Equinox we in the northern hemisphere have been getting less direct light than the southern hemisphere. As of 8:07 we will officially begin receiving more direct light than the southern hemisphere.

The other thing I should have known is that, for the southern hemisphere, this time will mark the Autumnal Equinox. I mean, I was aware that the seasons of the south are the reverse of the seasons of the north, winter here summer there, fall here spring there, but it just never occurred to me that the solstices and equinoxes were similarly flipped. Silly that should never have occurred to me.

Oh, one other little thing I learned is that "solstice" means "sun stands still". Since the solstice marks when the sun stops moving north or south and reverses direction, that's a very sensible thing to call it.

Another interesting tidbit, apparently the great Sphinx of Egypt is oriented so that it exactly faces the sunrise on the morning of the Vernal Equinox.

A Few Random Items

Abacquer — Fri, 16 Mar 2007 21:35:00 -0400

Continuing in the vein of yesterday's post, I have a few more random thoughts to share...

Survivorman
Perhaps you've never seen this show, it's on The Science Channel (not to be confused with Discovery Channel or The Learning Channel). I really enjoy it. The premise is simple. In each episode they take Les Stroud and dump him in the middle of nowhere with meagre supplies and about 50 pounds of camera equipment. His only mission is to survive for seven days before the crew returns to pick him up. He's not allowed to break down the camera equipment and use it for survival, and he does all the filming himself. I can only imagine what an incredible amount of effort is involved in shooting himself walking past the camera or trudging off into the distance, only to have to return and get the camera. This show strikes me as one James would enjoy. I've seen this poor guy dumped in the arctic tundra, the swamps of Georgia, some desert out west somewhere, even one episode where he had to survive in a life raft at sea for seven days. You can order season 1 of the show on DVD if you are interested. I discovered this show during my many days of bedrest over the last month or so.

North and West of the City...
I'm sick of this phrase. I hear it all the time during weather reports, as in "2 to 5 inches of snow are expected in the Boston area, while areas North and West of the city could receive as much as a foot." It's snowing today. Unlike those in and south of the city, there's no rain following the storm here... it's just piling up. Day before St. Patrick's day and the snow is just dumping down. *sigh*

Cosmos and Carl
I miss Carl Sagan, and I loved Cosmos when I was a kid. One of my best memories of childhood is sitting in the living room with my Dad watching Carl explain history, other dimensions, outer space, the doppler effect, and various other intriguing things. Pat and I both talked recently of trying to find the Cosmos series on DVD to watch with Lynnea (though it might be too slow paced for her.) Amazon has it, if you are interested. One of my favorite segments of that series was when Carl explained what it would be like for two dimensional creatures to encounter a three dimensional one, as a way of explaining what a fourth dimension might be like, as a mechanism for explaining the concept of a curved universe as it relates to the big bang. The two dimensional creatures were called "flatlanders" because they lived (appropriately enough) in Flatland. I finally found that segment on YouTube, but it is included in a larger 10 minute video. You can watch it here, the part about Flatland starts about 3 minutes in, after a discussion of Hubble's discovery that the universe was expanding. In the next segment, Carl ties in the curved universe and questions about the existence of God. It's slow paced but wonderfully done. I really should pick that series up and watch it again as an adult--I've no doubt I'd learn more this time.

Destroying a Career
As you probably know, Valerie Plame testified today before House Oversight and Government Reform Committee and finally had a chance to speak out on her cover being blown by an administration with hopelessly misplaced priorities. One of the saddest things about this, as far as I can see, is that her CIA career as a covert agent is basically over at this point. That's got to be infuriating for her. I can't imagine what that must be like. From her testimony today:

..."My name and identity were carelessly and recklessly abused by senior officials in the White House and State Department. [...] I could no longer perform the work for which I had been highly trained." [...] Under questioning, Plame recounted feeling "like I had been hit in the gut" on the July 2003 morning when she saw a newspaper story by syndicated columnist Robert Novak identifying her...

Pace and the Unbagged Cat
Smooth one General, really smooth. For those of you who haven't heard, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Peter Pace, stepped in it on Tuesday by saying he supported the Pentagon's ban on gays serving openly in the military because homosexual acts are "immoral". Way to go, dickhead. There are thousands upon thousands of gay people serving in our great nation's military right now, many of them putting themselves in harm's way. Thanks for telling them that they're a bunch of immoral perverts. General Pace, for his part, has refused to apologize for the remarks, and has only gone as far as to say that he regrets making them. I'll bet he does, but only because it is inconvenient for him now that the cat is out of the bag. As far as offending the gay troops who've been valiantly serving over the last four years of this misguided war? It's clear what Pace thinks of them. I never understood the ban on gays in the military, and I understood don't-ask-don't-tell even less, except that it allows good soldiers to serve a country that needs them, regardless of their sexual orientation. And the same people that screeched in 1993 that we couldn't let gays in are screeching today that we can't let gays serve openly, for the same stupid reasons--because it would cause a breakdown in unit cohesion on the battlefield. What a bunch of bullshit. I'm sorry but a guy brave enough to crawl across a battlefield under fire while trying to avoid landmines isn't going to be worrying if the guy behind him is checking out his ass. Give me a goddamned break, PLEASE. Here's a thought, I won't ask then next time something as stupid as that enters your mind, and you don't tell, okay? (As a sad but not unexpected sidenote, conservatives are leaping to the General's defense.)

The Cosmic Connection

Abacquer — Thu, 23 Nov 2006 10:19:00 -0500

Panda's Thumb has a post with links to YouTube videos of a lecture given by Neil deGrasse Tyson (an astrophysicist of some reknown). It's worth watching.

It was interesting to see and hear Mr. Tyson speak with passion about discovery and the "spiritual" feeling that comes from looking out into the universe and coming to the realization how we are all connected to it and part of it. Given how every atom in our bodies which is heavier that hydrogen was forged in the cores of stars, he notes "We're not just in the universe, the universe is in us."

Perhaps most wonderful to me, was to hear confirmation of my crackpot ideas about what "spiritual feelings" are and why atheists can have them coming from Mr. Tyson.

The speech is about 16 or so minutes long, but it is worth seeing. I found Mr. Tyson's conviction and depth of feeling about our connection to the cosmos touching. I think in some small way I know how he feels. When I finally get home in the evening from work I can't resist looking up at the stars for at least a moment or two before I walk into the house. And whenever I do I feel a kinship to those distant stars.

It's nice to know someone else does too...

Random Science

Abacquer — Fri, 03 Nov 2006 11:37:00 -0500

Here's a few science-related news stories that have caught my eye in recent days...

All Quiet on the ULev Front

Abacquer — Wed, 04 Oct 2006 06:08:00 -0400

Sorry friends, been busy these last few days. Here's a short recap of what's been going on in my life...

Alas Poor Pluto, I Knew Him Horatio...

Abacquer — Thu, 24 Aug 2006 13:30:00 -0400

Well the votes are in, and Pluto has gotten the axe as have the other new planets that originally were going to be included. Our solar system has eight planets. Pluto is reclassified as a "dwarf planet" along with Ceres and 2003 UB313...

That Whole Dozen Planets Thing?

Abacquer — Fri, 18 Aug 2006 23:41:00 -0400

Well... maybe you should forget all that. The IAU meeting in Prague is becoming quite heated... apparently a lot of scientists have got different opinions as to what constitutes a planet. At this point it looks like the current definition, which I think is elegant and thoughtful, isn't going to survive the vote. An alternate definition that makes the neighborhood a body is in relevant to the definition, seems to be gaining favor. Basically the new definition is similar to the previous one, except that it states a body must be "by far the largest" (whatever that means) in its "local region" (whatever THAT means). Which basically means Earth at present is a planet, but if there were 40 Earth-sized worlds all sharing the same orbit as Earth, Earth would no longer be a planet. And further, the new definition does nothing to address binary planets. This definition would exclude Pluto and the other proposed new planets, leaving the count at 8 planets. Stay tuned folks...

One Dozen Planets

Abacquer — Thu, 17 Aug 2006 10:48:00 -0400

The Sol Planetary Pack now comes with three new collectibles. They are Ceres, Charon, and 2003 UB313. What am I on about? Read on...

Perseids Expected to be Poor This Year

Abacquer — Wed, 09 Aug 2006 00:15:00 -0400

For me the Perseid meteor shower has been poor every year because without fail there are clouds in the sky on August 12. Have been every time I've looked for the Perseids since the first time I saw them at summer camp 29 years ago. This year, even if there are no clouds, there's going to be a brilliant moon spoiling the shower. This Nasa website on the 2006 Perseids suggests viewing before the moon rises for rare "Earth grazers" (that is, meteors that hit the atmosphere nearly horizontally and skip across the sky like a rock bouncing on a pond.) Apparently this type of Perseid is very rare, and you are likely to only see 1 or 2 before the moon rises and ruins the show. Murphy's law dictates that this year, the sky will be brilliantly clear just to piss me off. Wait and see.

Lakes Discovered on Titan

Abacquer — Tue, 25 Jul 2006 20:54:00 -0400

Cool! Check this out.

...The cluster of lakes was spotted near Titan's frigid north pole during a weekend flyby by the international Cassini spacecraft, which flew within 590 miles of the moon.

Researchers counted about a dozen lakes six to 62 miles wide. Some, which appeared as dark patches in radar images, were connected by channels, while others had tributaries flowing into them. Several were dried up, but the ones that contained liquid were most likely a mix of methane and ethane...

Stone Calendar?

Abacquer — Wed, 28 Jun 2006 11:46:00 -0400

I love stone calendars like Stonehenge--rings of stones marking days of the year or important annual astronomical alignments. Such structures are common in many parts of the world, but until now, none have been found that originate from pre-Columbrian Amazon cultures, simply because such cultures tended to build using clay and wood. Now, on a grassy hilltop near the village of Calcoene in northern Brazil, scientists have discovered what may be the remains of a stone calendar...

Following Up

Abacquer — Tue, 31 Jan 2006 16:51:00 -0500

Since I've been so busy/sick lately, and recently started my Stone Rain Project blog, I've had little time for ULev. My bad, but it's not as if I haven't wanted to post. Sorry! As a way of warming up I'm going to follow up on some earlier posts...

The Wolverine's Den

Abacquer — Sat, 31 Dec 2005 20:34:00 -0500

Here's a blog I was lucky to find today. Check out Wolverine's Den if you get a chance. Beautiful photography and great articles about what is going on today with respect to astronomy and space exploration. They've got a nice article about the New Horizons probe to Pluto which is due to launch soon.

EDIT: The new blogs I've noted of late--Bad Astronomy Blog, The Panda's Thumb, and Wolverine's Den--have all been added to my blogroll.

Happy Solstice!

Abacquer — Wed, 21 Dec 2005 01:00:00 -0500

Happy solstice everyone! On this, the darkest day of the year, it's important to hold on to hope, and to look around and realize what you have to be thankful for...

Happy Holidays

Abacquer — Thu, 15 Dec 2005 19:41:00 -0500

I refuse to get drawn into the ridiculous "War on Christmas" twaddle, especially when so many competent bloggers are turning the hoses on that subject far better than I. Instead this is an idea turned research project which I have been spending time on here and there over the last couple weeks. You can consider this an endorsement of the phrase "Happy Holidays" and why it makes so much sense this time of year...

Hayabusa in Trouble

Abacquer — Tue, 06 Dec 2005 09:13:00 -0500

The Japanese probe which recently landed on the asteroid Itokawa and collected samples for return to Earth, developed new problems during liftoff from the surface of Itokawa. One thruster began leaking gas, causing Hayabusa to shake and change orientation, and another ceased operating altogether. The problems must be corrected before the probe can return home, a trip that must begin in early December. The Washington Post has the story: Japanese May Lose Hayabusa Spacecraft.

Hayabusa's Packing Asteroid

Abacquer — Sat, 26 Nov 2005 09:05:00 -0500

From Japanese Probe Collects Asteroid Samples (AP via Yahoo News):

..."The initial movements and operations look very good," Yashiro said. "The process of sampling also seems to have gone very well...

...But JAXA won't know if Hayabusa actually collected surface samples until it returns to Earth. It is expected to touch down in the Australian Outback in June 2007...

...Hayabusa touched down shortly before 8 a.m. Japan time, firing a metal projectile into the surface and collecting the dust that was kicked up. The whole procedure was over in a matter of seconds...

Initial Hayabusa Touchdown Confirmed

Abacquer — Thu, 24 Nov 2005 22:32:00 -0500

During the three hours of radio silence during Hayabusa's touchdown attempt the other day, the craft did indeed land on the Itokawa asteroid according to JAXA officials. It did not however collect a sample as it was supposed to. Another landing attempt is scheduled for Saturday. Hayabusa's Earth-return window closes in early December, so I imagine the science team is feeling a little pressed for time at this point!

Next Stop: Venus!

Abacquer — Wed, 23 Nov 2005 16:00:00 -0500

The European Space Agency's (ESA) Mars orbiter (the Mars Express) has been a great success. Its mission is expected to wrap up on November 30 of this year. On November 9, ESA launched a sister mission to Venus... the Venus Express! The ship is expected to arrive at Venus in about 4 months where it will orbit the hot planet and study its soupy, hostile atmosphere. Check out the Venus Express Mission Homepage for more information.

Another interesting upcoming ESA mission (due to launch in June of 2006) is COROT. This satellite will orbit the Earth and will include equipment which should be able to definitively detect terrestrial planets (i.e. consisting largely of rock, as opposed to gas giants) around other stars. Up until now the only planets we've been able to detect around other stars have been gas giants like Jupiter, the largest and most massive sorts of planets.

Cosmic Junkpile Thwarts Researchers

Abacquer — Tue, 22 Nov 2005 08:38:00 -0500

Recent images from the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency's Hayabusa probe to the asteroid Itokawa reveal a world that looks very much like a loosely held together pile of rubble. But this junkpile isn't giving up its secrets easily--the mission has been problematic so far...

Pluto and Charon Have Children

Abacquer — Fri, 18 Nov 2005 10:31:00 -0500

Pluto, the enigmatic little Kuiper Belt object (or planet, if you prefer) which wanders in the far reaches of our solar system, has long captured my imagination. As an 11 year old boy, I was thrilled with the news that a moon of Pluto, "Charon" had been discovered. I liked the idea that Pluto had an inordinately large (by comparison) companion, that it didn't have to wander the cold frontier alone. Then earlier this month, I got to relive that thrill...

Twenty Years to Mars

Abacquer — Sun, 18 Sep 2005 11:00:00 -0400

4Frontiers Corporation wants to go to Mars. The Cambridge, MA based firm has set as a longterm goal the opening a small settlement on the surface of Mars sometime in the next 20 years. I read about it in a recent AP article...

Hayabusa and Genesis

Abacquer — Fri, 16 Sep 2005 10:50:00 -0400

The Japanese probe "Hayabusa" as arrived at its destination after two years of space flight, a half-mile long asteroid informally named "Itokawa" (aka 1998 SF36). Though it is not the first probe to visit an asteroid, it is the first that will attempt to collect a sample from the asteroid's surface and return it to Earth. This is very exciting...

The Eagle Has Landed

Abacquer — Fri, 26 Aug 2005 13:05:00 -0400

Over a year since landing on Mars with a 90-day lease on life, the rover Spirit is still alive and has made a major accomplishment this week. Shortly after its arrival the rover spotted a cluster of hills on the horizon that were quickly named after deceased astronauts. After completing observations in its immediate vicinity, Spirit started rolling toward those hills with the assumption that it probably wouldn't survive long enough to get there...

Martian Dust Devils

Abacquer — Wed, 24 Aug 2005 09:09:00 -0400

Nasa has released an animated gif of dust devils whirling through Gusev crater on Mars as witnessed by one of the Mars rovers. Check it out, it's neat!

Perseids 2005: Are You Ready to Miss This?

Abacquer — Thu, 11 Aug 2005 10:18:00 -0400

Ah August 12th is almost upon us, time once again for the beautiful Perseid meteor shower to be blocked out by New England clouds. I've been trying to see this shower since the first time I witnessed it, nearly 30 years ago. Every single intervening Aug 12 has been cloudy, and I don't expect this one to be any different, no matter what the weathermen say...

Cameras Show Problem on Shuttle Belly -- Astronauts Attempt Repair

Abacquer — Wed, 03 Aug 2005 00:47:00 -0400

Newly added camera systems show some anomalous fabic jutting from the underside of the shuttle (bbc picture) and astronauts will spacewalk tonight to effect repairs. The camera systems that spotted the problem were added in response to the last shuttle disaster... without them, we'd never even know there was a problem. Good luck astronaut Robinson.

Counting Suns

Abacquer — Thu, 28 Jul 2005 11:00:00 -0400

Wow... here's a story that captures the imagination. Astrophysicists have long believed that the more stars a solar system has in it, the less likely it is that planets will form. Thus a world three suns (like the world in the sci-fi/action/thriller Pitch Black), would be extremely unlikely. In fact you could go as far to say that it is generally believed that planets cannot form in trinary systems... until now, because one has been found...

Blogs Reach Escape Velocity

Abacquer — Sat, 23 Jul 2005 11:00:00 -0400

MindComet is making available a new (currently free) service to aggregate and transmit your RSS feed into deep space from a satellite transmitter. It takes about two seconds to sign your blog up at BlogInSpace.com. In theory Unbecoming Levity's RSS feed has been being beamed into outer space since 7/19/2005. I say "in theory" of course because I have no real proof the company is doing what it says its doing. But it's still a fun idea...