Unbecoming Levity

NYT on Nate

Abacquer — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 11:57:00 -0500

Here's a nice article in the New York Times about Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight who's predictions about the 2008 presidential and senate races were so amazingly accurate. Hat tip to my friend Bruce who brought the article to my attention.

Election: Late Voting Station Report - Somerville, MA

Abacquer — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 23:53:00 -0500

FINAL REPORT. Thanks everyone who sent these in!

My coworker Rich sent in the following report from Somerville, MA...

Election: Late Voting Station Report - Salem, NH

Abacquer — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 23:49:00 -0500

My coworker Tim sent in the following report from Salem, NH...

Election: Late Voting Station Report - Sudbury, MA

Abacquer — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 23:45:00 -0500

My coworker Wayne sent in the following report from Sudbury, MA...

Election: Late Voting Station Report - Leominster, MA

Abacquer — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 23:40:00 -0500

My friend Dave sent in the following report from Leominster, MA...

Election: Late Voting Station Report - West Bloomfield, MI

Abacquer — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 23:37:00 -0500

My flickr friend Scot sent in the following report from West Bloomfield, MI...

Election: Updated Tallies, Presidential and Senate Races

Abacquer — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 23:27:00 -0500

Okay a lot has happened since I last posted. First, the Associated Press has called North Carolina for Obama.

President-elect Obama adds victory in North Carolina to White House win (Associated Press):
...The Associated Press declared Obama the winner after canvassing counties in North Carolina to determine the number of outstanding provisional ballots. That survey found that there are not enough remaining ballots for Republican John McCain to close a 13,693-vote deficit...

CNN still hasn't called North Carolina as evidenced by their electoral map.

So according to the AP Obama's EV total is 364, and according to CNN it is 349.

Still no clear result from Missouri. Right now McCain has 1,442,673 votes to Obama's 1,436,814 votes giving McCain a razor thin lead of 5,859 votes. But apparently they are still processing provisional ballots there, so there is an outside chance that Obama may still carry the state (although the Kansas City Star clearly doesn't think so!)

Missouri loses its bragging rights by bucking its own trend (Kansas City Star):
...Unofficial results Wednesday showed John McCain with a 5,868-vote margin in the state — a lead that could narrow as final results are tallied and some 7,000 provisional ballots are examined.

Few observers, though, think the outcome will change. Expect Missouri’s 11 electoral votes go to the Republican amid a national landslide for Barack Obama...

Interestingly, the Omaha World Herald is saying Obama may have won another electoral vote from Nebraska's 2nd District. If Obama has the lead there, Nebraska will split its electoral votes, which would move one EV from the McCain column into the Obama column giving him 365 EV's:

Obama's odds of getting Nebraska electoral vote increase (Omaha World Herald):
...Obama won about 61 percent of the early votes counted before Tuesday's election. If that percentage holds with the early ballots left to count, Obama stands a strong chance of winning the Omaha-area 2nd Congressional District.

Republicans did not concede defeat Thursday, but they acknowledged the long odds.

John McCain held a 569-vote lead over Obama in the 2nd District at the end of Tuesday...

In the senate races, 3 seats are still in play, but the race in Oregon has been decided with the seat going to the democrat Jeff Merkley according to The Oregonian. This gives the Democrats 57 seats in the Senate.

The Coleman vs Franken race in Minnesota is being recounted, and the current results shows a spread of only 236 votes. Talk about close! The Associated Press is quoting one expert saying the race is almost certainly going to be decided in court:

Litigation in waiting: Recount could be just the start in deciding Minn. Senate winner (Associated Press):
...After a recount, the candidates or any eligible voter can head to court to challenge how the election was conducted or the votes were tallied. The Minnesota law spelling out the contest raises the possibility of Senate involvement.

"I don't think there is any possibility it will be simply a recount," said Hamline University law professor Joseph Daly. "It is destined for the courthouse and ultimately it is destined for the United States Senate based on this law. There's too much at stake. There's too much vitriol."...

The Georgia senate race is still undecided. Saxby Chambliss has the lead, but under Georgia law he must achieve 50% + 1 votes or the election will immediately go to a runoff. As of yet he isn't there, and Georgia's Fulton County is still not finished counting absentee and provisional ballots according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. The candidates have no choice but to start campaigning now on the chance that a runoff will be necessary:

Ballot-counting marathon stretches in Fulton (Atlanta Journal-Constitution):
...By early evening, officials had more than 100 ballots left to count, out of about 31,000 total absentee ballots. They could not estimate when the work would finish. Even when that’s done, workers must still count hundreds of provisional ballots...

...Democratic challenger Jim Martin and Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss have begun their campaigns, even though a runoff is not yet certain. The approximate 147,000 votes cast on voting machines during early voting in Fulton have been counted already, county officials said...

...Secretary of State Karen Handel has threatened to report the county’s election operation to the state Election Board for releasing workers before their work was done...

..."Fulton County should have had proper staffing and procedures in place," [Handel’s spokesman] said. "They knew how many ballots had been issued and should have known how many had been returned up until Election Day,” he said.

The Office of Inspector General will conduct a thorough investigation of Fulton County’s activities...

Counting continues in Alaska but at present incumbent Ted Stevens holds the lead by about 4,000 votes… despite being a convicted felon. Chatter on the net is saying Alaskans may have voted to keep the seat red. Even if Ted resigns or is tossed out of office, it would be up to the Governor (Sarah Palin) to appoint someone to the seat... and she may just decide to appoint herself:

Is Sarah Palin Nipping at Ted Stevens' Heels? (The Washington Post):
...Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said this week that even if Stevens wins his race, he shouldn't expect to keep his job on Capitol Hill. "The reality is that a convicted felon is not going to be able to serve in the United States Senate," Reid said. "And as precedent shows us, Senator Stevens will face an ethics committee investigation and expulsion, regardless of his appeals process."

And what might happen if his colleagues do kick Stevens out of the Senate, prompting a special election? Who might be in line to replace him? Hint: lipstick; $150,000 wardrobe. Yep, you betcha! Sarah Palin...

In other news, Harry Reid and Joe Lieberman had a meeting today. Some in the Democratic party have been calling for Lieberman to be expelled from the party for his vocal support of John McCain. It doesn't seem likely that will happen, but doubtless some action will be taken. CQ Politics has the story.

Lieberman’s Future Undecided After Meeting With Reid (CQ Politics):
...While I understand that Senator Lieberman has voted with Democrats a majority of the time, his comments and actions have raised serious concerns among many in our caucus, Reid said in a statement following the meeting.

"I expect there to be additional discussions in the days to come, and Senator Lieberman and I will speak to our caucus in two weeks to discuss further steps," he said...

Election: CNN calls Indiana for Obama

Abacquer — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 12:51:00 -0500

Obama 349 McCain 163

Two states remain uncalled, Missouri (McCain leads by 1 point), and North Carolina (Obama leads by 1 point.) Assuming those leads are maintained, the final count will be Obama 364 McCain 174.

The 4 uncalled senate races are still in play. All of them are leaning republican. The closest is in Minnesota where Coleman (R) leads Franken by a mere 694 votes.

90+ Articles in 24 Hours

Abacquer — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 09:42:00 -0500

Sheesh! Time to get back to work. Talk to you guys later today. I'll keep checking the outstanding states and senate seats.

Election: What If He's Just a Smooth Talker?

Abacquer — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 09:02:00 -0500

So my wife and I were talking about Obama's victory last night. I was telling her how moving the speech he gave and Grant Park in Chicago was (watch the video: part one, part two). She said to me "I'm glad he won, but I hope he doesn't turn out to be just a smooth talker."

It's a worry I've heard before, from a number of people, some of whom I love dearly. It's a worry I harbored myself during the primaries.

When she said that something occurred to me which had not before. But it is the best answer I can offer for those who still harbor the fear that our President-elect might be all talk:

It's not really the president who can create transformative changes in our nation. Nobody could singlehandedly do what needs to be done to get our nation out of the troubles it is in. It will take the American public, we the people, to do those things. And in order for people to abandon cynicism and dare to hope, in order for the people to do what needs to be done for this nation, somebody has to motivate us.

A smooth talker, or as I prefer to think of it, a motivational speaker, is exactly what we need. Someone who will reach across the aisle, build coalitions, and motivate us all to make our nation better. In the 60's a single man motivated our nation to send a man to the moon with technology that is positively archaic by today's standards. It was a stupendously difficult task, but all we had to do was decide to do it. The president can only lead, it is we the people, who will do.

Obama is such a man, as John F.Kennedy did he can motivate people like nobody else I've seen in my lifetime. I think that with all the problems facing our nation, this is one of our greatest moments. I will never forget this day.

Election: Current Tallies

Abacquer — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 08:23:00 -0500

During the night both CNN and NPR called Montana and Alaska for McCain.

CNN has him with 163 electoral votes and NPR has him with 162. I assume the difference is due to states which split their EV's. I know Nebraska and Maine both do this, and FiveThirtyEight is saying that Nebraska's second district is too close to call.

The big news this morning is that NPR has called Indiana for Obama, while CNN still says it is too close to call. With 99% of the precincts reporting, the vote there stands at 1,352,356 for Obama and 1,329,370 for McCain. If this state really does end up in the blue column it will be fairly amazing--Indiana hasn't voted democratic since 1964.

CNN puts Barack at 338 EV's, and NPR puts him at 349 with Indiana's 11 EV's in his total.

Missouri hasn't been called by either news agency. 100% of the precincts are reporting and the votes are 1,435,724 for Obama and 1,442,577 for McCain. That's a lead of just under 7,000 votes! Late ballots are probably still trickling in.

North Carolina also hasn't been called by either CNN or NPR. 100% of the precincts are reporting and the votes are 2,101,986 for Obama and 2,089,826 for McCain. That's a lead of approximately 12,000 votes. At 15 EV's, NC is the biggest state of the states uncalled.

If both NC and IN are in the Obama column, that would put him at 364 EV's, which is in "landslide" country.

The popular vote has widened over night with Obama now leading 52% to McCain's 47%.

In the Senate races, amazingly, 4 seats are still undetermined!

In Alaska Ted Stevens (R) is leading Mark Begich by about 3,000 votes with 99% of the precincts reporting. Convicted felon or not, it looks like Stevens may pull out a victory here.

In Oregon, Smith (R) is leading Merkley by 2 points with 74% of precincts reporting.

In a stunningly close race in Minnesota, Coleman (R) is leading Franken by a mere 762 votes! The Independent in that race, Barkley, took 15% of the vote. 100% of precincts are reporting.

In Georgia, Chambliss (R) is leading Martin by almost 140,000 votes (4 points), but at FiveThirtyEight.com they were saying that the turnout numbers are way too low, and are speculating the early votes might not be completely represented in the tally yet.

Election: Blogathon Concluded

Abacquer — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 00:53:00 -0500

Congratulations President-elect Obama.

Five states remain uncalled: Alaska, Montana, Missouri, Indiana, and North Carolina. Barack leads Montana, Indiana, and North Carolina by small margins presently.

Senate seats stand at 57 Democratic 40 Republican and 4 in play.

Obama's victory speech was was moving and compelling as ever. I really look forward to finally having a president I can respect, a man with a strength of intellect to match the strength of his conviction. There are dark days ahead, but I can't think of anyone better to lead us through them.

At this time I am going to sign off and hit the hay. I've been at this since before 6 AM yesterday morning and I am exhausted. I need to get some sleep.

I'll update the tallies in the morning.

My sincere thanks to everyone who helped out with poll reports. I'll be disabling the pollreport e-mail address.

Goodnight folks!

Election: Voting Station Report - Loveland, CO

Abacquer — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 00:42:00 -0500

MOTL user Josh has voted and sent in the following report from Loveland, CO...

Election: McCain Concedes

Abacquer — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 23:42:00 -0500

John McCain has called Barack Obama and offered his concession and congratulations. Shortly thereafter he delivered a very gracious concession speech to his supporters in Phoenix, AZ where he called on all Americans to back Barack Obama, the 44'th President of the United States of America.

State Tally:

Florida, Hawaii, Nevada, and Colorado have been called for Obama. Arizona, Nebraska, and South Dakota have been called for McCain.

This makes the current vote tally Obama 338 McCain 155.

Obama continues to hold 3 points over McCain in the popular vote.

The following states are yet to be called: Alaska, Montana, Missouri, Indiana, and North Carolina.

In the Senate races, there are still 4 seats up for grabs, Alaska, Oregon, Minnesota, and Georgia. At present Democrats are projected to have 56 seats to the Republicans 40 seats.

Election: State Tally

Abacquer — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 23:13:00 -0500

Virginia, Washington, Oregon, and California all go to Barack, pushing him beyond 270 to 297 EV's.

McCain picks up Idaho taking him to 139 EV's.

Barack has a good lead in Colorado, and an edge in Florida. If he picks up those states and Nevada, it's going to be a HUGE win for him.

He presently leads in the popular vote by 3 points as well.

States that remain uncalled:

North Carolina, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, South Dakota, Nebraska, Montana, Colorado, Arizona, and Nevada.

What a day... I'm still reeling. Trying not to cry... it's such an amazing thing to see how far we have come.

YES WE CAN!

Election: CNN CALLS IT FOR OBAMA!!!

Abacquer — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 23:02:00 -0500

CNN called Virginia for Obama and then mere moments later called the election for Barack Obama.

YES WE CAN!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jjXyqcx-mYY

Election: Senate Seats Update

Abacquer — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 22:32:00 -0500

54 are going to the Democrats, and 37 to the Republicans with 9 still in play. FiveThirtyEight projected that the final Democratic total would be 56 or 57 seats. Franken is currently leading in Minnesota and Udall is leading in Colorado, and if they win that would indeed be 56 for the Democrats.

Election: TX, MS, and AR Called for McCain

Abacquer — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 22:26:00 -0500

With Texas, Mississippi, and Arkansas going to McCain the EV's shape up as follows:

Obama 207 McCain 135

88% of Virginia is reporting, Obama leads by 1 point.

80% of North Carolina is reporting, the state is a 50/50 split (Obama leading by a mere 4,000 votes).

69% of Florida is reporting, Obama leads by 2 points.

If Obama actually wins VA, NC and FL this isn't just going to be a win, it's going to be a rout.

McCain leads in Indiana with 88% of precincts reporting.

Election: Obama is Leading in Virginia!!

Abacquer — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 22:06:00 -0500

With 83% of the precincts reporting, Obama has 1,335,563 votes and McCain has 1,322,147 votes. Obama leads by 1%, or about 13,000 votes.

Election: CNN Projects KS and UT for McCain, and IA for Obama!

Abacquer — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 22:02:00 -0500

Obama is projected to win Iowa... SWEET! Kansas and Utah go to McCain, no surprises there.

Obama 206 McCain 89

Election: CNN calls New Mexico for Obama, Louisiana for McCain

Abacquer — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 21:51:00 -0500

Obama 199 McCain 78

Popular vote is very close 50% Obama, 49% McCain.

McCain still leading Obama in Indiana by 1%. Very close there.

In Indiana there are 1,009,490 votes for McCain and 984,352 votes for Obama with 76% of precincts reporting. It's a difference of about 25,000 votes. CNN still hasn't called this state either way.

Election: CNN is Not Calling it Impossible for McCain...

Abacquer — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 21:48:00 -0500

But they might as well. They've run the numbers giving McCain states which pollsters think are likely to break for Obama and couldn't come up with a way to get McCain to 270. I'm going to keep following this but so far it is looking good for Obama.

Virginia continues to track 50/50.

1,216,425 votes for McCain

1,208,013 votes for Obama

With 76% of the precincts reporting.

Election: CNN Calls Ohio for Obama

Abacquer — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 21:36:00 -0500

CNN now follows NPR and calls Ohio for Obama.

Obama 194 McCain 69

Still watching Virginia, amazingly it has closed to 50/50 there! A dead heat with a difference of only 7000 votes and 72% of the precincts reporting. Could Obama really flip this state?

Election: NPR is Calling Ohio for Obama!

Abacquer — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 21:30:00 -0500

This is good news! McCain NEEDS Ohio to win this.

CNN is not calling the state at this time.

Election: Senate Seats Update, Calls WV for McCain

Abacquer — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 21:26:00 -0500

CNN is currently projecting 13 seats going to the Democrats, 9 to the Republicans and 13 still undecided. This gives the Democrats 52 seats at present.

West Virginia is called for McCain, giving him 5 more EV.

Obama 174 McCain 69

McCain still leading Obama in Virginia by 1 point, 31% of the precincts still haven't reported results yet.

CNN has announced a BIG projection is coming up... are they going to call Florida for Obama? Wait and see!!!

Election: Voting Station Report - Lorain, OH

Abacquer — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 21:21:00 -0500

My flickr friend Holly has voted and sent in the following report from Lorain, OH...

Election: CNN Calls Tennessee and Georgia for McCain

Abacquer — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 21:16:00 -0500

Obama 174 McCain 64

Virginia is now reporting 67% of its precincts and McCain's lead has shrunk to a point!!! Could Obama actually take this state?

Election: Voting Station Report - Wellfleet, MA

Abacquer — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 21:08:00 -0500

My friend Sara has voted and sent in the following report from Wellfleet, MA...

Election: CNN Calls NH Senate Race for Jean Shaheen

Abacquer — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 21:06:00 -0500

I for one will not miss John Sununu.

Election: CNN Calls More States

Abacquer — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 21:03:00 -0500

Alabama, Wyoming, North Dakota to McCain

Rhode Island, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New York to Obama

Obama 174 McCain 49

Virginia now has 45% of precincts reporting, McCain leads by 8 points there.